Courtesy of NREL. After more than a decade of declines, volume-weighted average prices for lithium-ion battery packs across all sectors have increased to $151/kWh in 2022, a 7 percent rise from last year in real terms. The upward cost pressure on batteries outpaced the higher adoption of lower cost chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP).
BloombergNEF (BNEF) has noticed that raw material and battery component prices have been rising steadily since it began tracking the market in 2010, aided by soaring inflation, and this has now led to the first ever increase in lithium-ion battery pack prices over that time period. Courtesy of NREL.
With mining cost ranging from $3,000/ton to $9,000/ton (Figure 1), lithium price could fall to the $10,000/ton level by around 2025, where the exact timing will depend on the actual EV market growth trajectory. Unlike short-term prices, long-term material prices are primarily determined by available reserve and ore grades.
In January, for example, it jumped 45.5% to $2,400 per ton, up from $1,650 in December. Similarly, the price of lithium carbonate has increased fivefold over 2020 and similar price increases have been recorded for lithium hydroxide (lithium refined to various stages of purity) over the past year.
Data until March 2023. Lithium-ion battery prices (including the pack and cell) represent the global volume-weighted average across all sectors. Nickel prices are based on the London Metal Exchange, used here as a proxy for global pricing, although most nickel trade takes place through direct contracts between producers and consumers.
Similarly, the price of lithium carbonate has increased fivefold over 2020 and similar price increases have been recorded for lithium hydroxide (lithium refined to various stages of purity) over the past year. BMI is forecasting that lithium prices will continue to increase for at least the next six months.
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